It is a repeat of Summer '89, but Dark Knight isn't the right comparison. The first movie in a new superhero franchise beat an Indiana Jones sequel at the box office, and that movie is Iron Man. Iron Man is on pace to make upwards of $325 million and Indiana Jones is going to struggle to get to $300 million. Iron Man is holding onto its audience week after week like few movies can ever dream of and that ANY sequel has no chance of doing. All Indiana Jones can do thanks to the non-record-breaking debut is try to hang on to 2nd this year. Just like with Sex and the City you're going to see better-than-expected performance of the new movies over the next couple of weeks due to audiences backing away from Indy due to the mixed reception.

The problem I have with Batman now is that it is no longer for kids, and yet not really for older adults. Other than a few curses, at least Indy is still kid-watchable.

Good post! This is spot on! As of right now it looks like Iron Man will most likely be the #1 movie of the summer, sad but true for Indy fans. Its great reviews, word of mouth, and number one spot out of the gate for the summer blockbuster season, has been a huge reason behind its success at the box office.

The Dark Knight I'm sure will be huge, but its gritty, dark, less kid friendly tone might keep families away. Heath Ledger's death could either help the film or creep people out, so that is really a toss-up as to how that will affect the film's tally overall. I'm just guessing, but I see The Dark Knight doing $275-$300 million domestic. This could make it a very tight race with KOTCS for the #2 spot.

One thing is for sure, if KOTCS doesn't even come in second... that would be really disappointing!! It'll really suck if one of the most hyped long awaited films of all time, can't even take the number one or two spot in the box office race!

Not to mention if it comes in third, I wonder what that might mean for the future of the franchise? Also let's not forget Wall-E and Hancock are still coming out, both movies that could seriously surprise people at the box office. You never know, KOTCS could get knocked even lower on the totem pole?

Iron Man is definitely going to be number one this weekend. It could easily get to 320 million domestically, outgrossing Transformers, which I did NOT see coming. Its a great movie with really good legs and the first big movie of the summer. Here's to Iron Man 2 in 2010!

That said, Indy 4 will be at least in the Top 3 this year. TDK is going to be very popular, but I think with the demographic its aiming for I think the max will be 300 million, and thats including people who might want to see it because its Ledger's last role.

Wall-E should be really popular too, but for some reason I don't think its going have Finding Nemo numbers. More than Rat, thats for sure.

IDK why everyone thinks Hancock is going to be some big some HUGE movie. Its going to be somewhere in between Wall-E and Hellboy II.

Man, this summer is going to awesome.

After last weekend, most analysts predicted that Indy is headed for a finish around $310 million with Iron Man topping out at about $320 million. If so, that's pretty good for a third sequel arriving 19 years later.

But it really could end up being a repeat of Summer 1989, with Indy being #2 domestically yet #1 worldwide. It's already the top overseas grosser of 2008- surpassing Iron Man's haul in only two weeks.

In terms of worldwide box office, the two films are currently only separated by a difference of $33 million.

I think people would suspect Hancock could do big numbers because it's a 4th of July Will Smith movie, and the records all show Will Smith does well at the summer box office! Just look at I Am Legend, even though it was released in the winter and not the summer, that movie shows just how much of a draw Smith still is! it may not bring in $250 million plus like IAL, but it could very well do $200-$225 million domestic.

I'm going to see it for sure, I'm a big Will Smith fan(Fresh Prince of Bel-Air = best sitcom ever), I just don't see no big 300 million numbers like Iron Man/Indiana Jones/TDK/maybe Wall-E

Yes, Indiana Jones is really cleaning Iron Man's clock in Europe and Russia. Its advantage over Iron Man in Germany, Spain and the U.K. is massive, nearly 2 to 1. Most everywhere outside of Europe Iron Man is either on par or surpassing Indy. I can only guess this is because the Indy films have taken their villains from the European theater 3 out of 4 times. Plus, the historical period Indy films take place in is of more interest to Europe than most other countries.

Superhero films also almost never make as much overseas as they do domestically, unlike most every other science-fiction/fantasy action films which usually make more overseas than here (with the only notable exceptions being the Spider-Man series which has successfully crossed over in a big way and the Fantastic Four series, probably just because it performed rather under par here). I can only guess that's because the comics and animated series haven't been distributed as widely in places like Europe and the characters are not as well known there.

I would not be surprised if Dark Knight is the number one film of the summer.

I think Heath Ledger's death is only going to increase the box office numbers. I'm not saying that's a good thing, I'm just saying that's probably a fact. People who only MIGHT have gone to see it, who are ledger fans... will go see it for sure because this is his last performance.

That and it's freak'n Batman vs. The Joker.

Exactly. It's this kind of morbid curiosity we all have. His death will boost sales significantly. It was already going to be huge to begin with. Plus it’s arguably the most iconic fictional character pairing of all time. Batman and the Joker…that’s modern mythology right there. You’d be hard pressed to find a single person in this world who’s not heard of them. Whether the film will be good or not is something else entirely, but I'm looking forward to it and have a lot of faith in Nolan.

If rumours of a near-three hour running time for The Dark Knight are true, that may limit its appeal for some, but it should still do remarkably well. Besides, as long as it's better than Indy 4...:up:

That shouldn't be too difficult...

If Dark Knight is anywhere near as good as Batman Begins is, then if you compare that to the weak, disappointing KOTCS, then Batman will triumph again in 08 like he did in 89.

Read the Batman comics, they haven't been for small children for a long time. Batman Begins wasn't that inapproriate of a movie, it was mainly just too sophisticated and complex for small kids to like it.

Anyone that thinks Batman was original for kids…doesn’t know much about Batman. He was arguably darker in his first year of publication then he is even today. He actually killed people and carried a gun. Sounds unbelievable, huh? Look it up! I’m completely serious. Then Batman slowly degraded into something he wasn’t. He went from a dark and grim creature of the night to utter camp. The late 60’s brought him back to his gothic and psychological roots. Batman Begins was the Batman film that educated Batman fans have been waiting for. If you want the 50’s Batman, go watch the Schumacher films.

How do you want to spin this question?

Are we talking about US only? Or Worldwide?

Obviously, the true winner is the one that makes the most worldwide.

That will be Indy.

We shall see, but I say doubtful.

Hm, I believe Batman shot one thug.
He wasn't a murdering vigilante.
But I haven't read those comics in a while...

I actually love the kiddie Batman comics from the 50's & 60's.
And I enjoy some of the Batman kid's comics today - they are sometimes better than the mainstream Batman stories!

It was more then once. Sure looks like a murdering vigilante to me. It was short lived, but you can't argue with the evidence.

I just wanted to add, that Burton's Batman Returns is probably the closet to the Batman from the first year of publication. Batman Begins is the closest to the Batman of the 80s, 90s, and present. Both of them are far different from the kid pandering Schumacher (sp) films.

Indy had a smash opening, but I still think Dark Knight will top it (at least domestically). I also think DK will last longer at the top of the box office than Indy did, but Indy will crush Bats in future DVD sales (if for no other reason than the multiple re-releases Lucas is probably envisioning and salivating over even as I type this).

Some interesting demographic breakdowns from IMDB:

Males (47,292 votes, 7.2 rating)
Females (6,402 votes, 7.3 rating)
Aged under 18 (3,576 votes, 8.2 rating)
Males under 18 (2,889 votes, 8.2 rating)
Females under 18 (681 votes 7.7 rating)
Aged 18-29 (37,115 votes. 7.2)
Males Aged 18-29 (32,878 votes, 7.2 rating)
Females Aged 18-29 (4,087 votes, 7.5 rating)
Aged 30-44 (10,842 votes, 6.9 rating)
Males Aged 30-44 (9,534 votes, 6.9 rating)
Females Aged 30-44 (1,194 votes, 7.0 rating)
Aged 45+ (2,068 votes, 7.1 rating)
Males Aged 45+ (1,666 votes, 7.1 rating)
Females Aged 45+ (376 votes, 6.7 rating)


http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0367882/ratings

I'm thinking TDK may win (but not by much). Problem w/ these kinds of things is that there are so many factors! Indy has the original generation that saw it in theatres, the VHS generation, film buffs, adventure fans, Shia lovers, etc. TDK has the innumerable Batman fans, Christian Bale/Chris Nolan/Heath Ledger fans, those who go in respect for Heath (RIP). Just too many factors!

I don't know about it being #1 of the summer, because even a movie like Narnia, which was predicted to make bank, bombed. But TDK will be huge.

More importantly, I can guarantee that TDK will be the best movie of the summer in terms of quality. The plot will be engrossing, and with a near-3 hour runtime, the subplots should be interesting as well. It will be a dark beast.

KOTCS was a very good movie. Not excellent, and I am aware of its flaws, but TDK will be a much better film. At least KOTCS is better than Iron Man though. The whole time I was watching that, I was thinking, "Would I ever watch this again?"