Missed this over the summer. I was poking around this section looking for a Thor Ragnarok thread to rave about what Cate Blanchett can do with a proper villain role and found this. I can live with being a little wrong on my box office prediction -- but I submit I was correct where it matters most: assessing the overall future and value of this property.
Given all the advance hype on BH6 how can you spin anything less than a sequel as a success? A kids cartoon show? I've got a 12 year boy that doesn't watch the Disney Channel so I don't know if a TV show is better or worse than a direct-to-video sequel. You don't spend $165M on an ANIMATED film 3-4 years ago for just a one-and-done and a Disney cartoon show. So I disagree with you on ROI. It's not just about making 10 or 20M -- its about creating valuable IP and how you lock up years of your top creative talent.
I stand by my observations on this property. It's completely irrelevant. It was fun scanning back through this thread. I own BH6 on iTunes and my son never watches it -- though I do catch him re-watching Hunger Games (and he went to see Thor twice this weekend).
Where's the BH6 merchandising bonanza? (and be careful on this one, I used to do legal work for a major American toy company not named Mattel).
And your thoughts on BH6's re-imagining San Fran predictions are interesting too. I will remember 2017 for quality issues out of Japan, most recently Kobe Steel which has been the biggest problem for me of late. As I said earlier, Japan is a fast atrophying culture. Short of Japan getting nuked by North Korea or a wave washing over the islands, Japanese culture will never, ever, have a major impact on San Francisco.
And as for your financial analysis, your numbers are only as good as they are because I think you low ball the marketing expenses. I don't agree with your 60-80M numbers. I looked at some numbers from Variety on BH6 TV spend + the content you posted on this thread + anecdotal references to marketing spend for this film in trade articles + the BH6 shirts I saw ushers wearing in theaters in the build up to BH6's release and there is no way marketing was limited to 60-80M. I know studios play a lot of games with marketing expenses, so I'll never believe anything put out by Disney, and I will not believe 60-80M.
Bottom line, BH6 was meant to be a franchise and it wasn't. Bottom line BH6 was meant to score big with young boys and it didn't.