How big a hit will Indy 4 be at the Box Office?

This has been discussed on some other threads not pertaining to this topic, so I figured why not give it it's own thread. I've seen a bit of what they've been discuusing at Box Office Mojo, but it's not a very hot topic right now, considering this summer blockbusters are getting ready to get underway.

So what do you all think, will Indy 4 be the biggest hit of 2008? Will it outgross Star Wars Episode 3:Revenge of the Sith? Can it catch Shrek, Spiderman, and the Pirates films, and join the club of 400 million domestically, or will it fizzle out and do only as well as say Superman Returns, another franchise revival from the 80's long overdue and hyped? We all know how well the original 3 films did, but can Indy still bring in the huge crowds and a new younger audience? Lastly what challenges do you think Spielberg and Lucas face in making this movie a huge hit?:

Indy 4 will kick every other movie of 2008's ass to the curb. Remember Phantom Menace? That movie was the most hyped and awaited sequel in history, and It became hugely sucessful. The Dark Knight and Iron Man will probably do fine, but Indy 4 is a sure winner. The fans have waited a VERY long time, and we will be swarming over this movie like flies on a sweaty horse in summer. (That was a little over-the-top, sorry)

In the end, Indy 4 will be THE hit of the decade!

deckard24 said:

This has been discussed on some other threads not pertaining to this topic, so I figured why not give it it's own thread. I've seen a bit of what they've been discuusing at Box Office Mojo, but it's not a very hot topic right now, considering this summer blockbusters are getting ready to get underway.

So what do you all think, will Indy 4 be the biggest hit of 2008? Will it outgross Star Wars Episode 3:Revenge of the Sith? Can it catch Shrek, Spiderman, and the Pirates films, and join the club of 400 million domestically, or will it fizzle out and do only as well as say Superman Returns, another franchise revival from the 80's long overdue and hyped? We all know how well the original 3 films did, but can Indy still bring in the huge crowds and a new younger audience? Lastly what challenges do you think Spielberg and Lucas face in making this movie a huge hit?:

Click to expand...

It all depends on how good it is.

If the movie great, yes that will add to the final B.O. tally, but then again if you take a film like POTC Dead Man's Chest, which is entertaining but not very good, and hauled in almost 450 million domestic, and I believe over a billion worldwide, it shows you some movies don't have to be great just have appeal.

oki9Sedo said:

It all depends on how good it is.

Click to expand...

Not necessarily. A lot of fans and critics hated The Phantom Menace, but it was a huge hit, financially.

It all depends on how good it is.

Bingo.

Not necessarily. A lot of fans and critics hated The Phantom Menace, but it was a huge hit, financially.

And Attack of the Clones took a financial hit for the mediocrity of Menace. I think Indy will gross 200-300 million if it is merely "good" but if it is great then the sky is the limit.

I think I will enjoy Indy 4, simply because it's new and I'm not usually picky over insignificant details.

I think most fans will be disappointed with Indy 4, because the expectations are way, way too high.

I do think it will be a box office success, because I agree with the Phantom Menace analogy above. To further that though, I think there will be a huge number of people who aren't necessarily fans, but have enjoyed the movies in the past. Like my dad. Not a BIG fan, but if The Last Crusade is shown on a Sunday afternoon on TV, he watches it. His type will go see the movie I'm sure; the lukewarmers who have to see it simply because they've seen the first 3 from time to time for the past couple of decades.

My guess: $320-350M

oki9Sedo said:

It all depends on how good it is.

Click to expand...

That's a world I'd like to live in.

I think since its been so long in coming people have been really anticipating it, therefore I'm sure it will have a successful run in theatres. When I first saw an Indy film I wasn't that big. And now that I am older I still love them. As often happens in trilogies or sequels people grow attached to characters, so naturally when a new book, or movie is released you immediately want to know what happens.

I'm just happy that no HP (Harry Potter) movies are opening in 2008. I love those movies as well, but I'm not sure if they have been as successful as the ones mentioned in the first post. And I'm not sure if an I4 movie could compete with Mr. Potter. (Don't crucify me for what I just wrote please lol)

But I strongly believe that I4 will be successful. I'll even go as far as to say that it will probably earn more money (and praise) than the new Rambo movie. lol Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

I really don't think this movie can go too wrong, as long as they stick to the style of the others. Yeah, a really bad casting job or a character created as a gimmick for laughs(Jar Jar) could be devastatingly bad, but I don't see it happening. The more I talk and think about this movie the more excited about I get. 2008 just can't come fast enough! I see I4 toppping out at around 300-325 million domestic, which will be huge. I'd love to see it hit 400 or higher, but that will all depend on repeat viewings, count me in for several, but will the young teenage crowd go to see it over and over again like with The Pirates flicks I don't know. That's why I mentioned there might need to be a hook for the younger crowd, other than it's Indiana Jones and you have to see it. A young star as a sidekick or child of Indy might need to be brought in to pull in the younger audience, for me it's not necessary at all, but if B.O. clout is an issue which I'm sure it will be w/Lucas then this will be addressed.

Although Indy is GREAT.... You got to look. The most people who will go to a theator are people who watch.
Pirtes of teh Caribbean ,and Shrek.......... Do you really think thsoe people would come ,and watch Indy? The typical punk (No offence if there are those around here) high-schooler/early 20's.
I doubt it. It will be Indy fans,Older people who grew up with indy ,and the younger kids who's parents say "You gotta go see indy".
Overall though i am going to say 300-320 mill.
Mainly because it is a big name ,and a "return" like Phantom Menace.

The Whip said:

It all depends on how good it is.

Bingo.

Not necessarily. A lot of fans and critics hated The Phantom Menace, but it was a huge hit, financially.

And Attack of the Clones took a financial hit for the mediocrity of Menace. I think Indy will gross 200-300 million if it is merely "good" but if it is great then the sky is the limit.

Click to expand...

Attack of the Clones did not take a hit from The Phantom Menace. Look at the ratio of what A New Hope grossed and then what Empire grossed following it. AOTC had much less of a drop off following TPM than Empire did from ANH.

I would be suprised if Indy made 300 million. None of the previous films came close to 300 million. I'd say 200 to 250 range.

In perspective, 200 million back then would be the equivalent of almost 500million (approx.) now.

Viper, good point! For those interested these are the #'s from Box Office Mojo original domestic totals and adjusted for today.

Raiders of the Lost Ark:1981 242,374,454 Today:579,973,400
Temple of Doom:1984 179,870,271 Today: 352,245,900
Last Crusade:1989 197,171,806 Today:325,160,500

I'm expecting "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"-level Box Office. Okay, that is a little too high a throne for Indy to reach, but still! Indy 4 will probably end up with an incredibly huge gross, perhaps big enough to conquer the record of Pirates: Dead Man's Chest. In the end, Indy 4 will get AT LEAST $360 million on it's opening weekend. That is if us Indy fans work together, spread the word of the film's release, build the hype, and then flock to the theaters like Christians running to see Jesus return at the beginning of Armageddon, then I think we have a winner.

In fact, I'm thinking about starting a thread concerned with what us fans could do to help the film's hype and long-awaited arrival. We could work together, make signs, start fans clubs and speculation meetings, create fanfics which could be submitted to Spielberg and Lucas, and maybe even make our own fan posters and novelisations. Trust me, us Indy fans, if we play our cards right and don't mess up, could make Indy 4 quite the event!!!

You're guys' thoughts?

Well, I think it depends on how the kids take to it. I think kids are getting a real special treat here, because this is going to be the kind of film that I got to see as a kid. Not the absurdly corny movies they put out now.

I guess comparable movies would be last year's Rocky Balboa or this year's Die Hard 4, in terms of franchises that have been away for over 10-15 years and come back with the same actor. I am not sure if it will do Spiderman or Pirates of the Carribean type numbers. Honestly, I think the success of Pirates is a really dark blemish on society.

I doubt KotCS will break any records, but I do think it will do extremely good. Optimistically, all of the old fans will see it because they love the past films, and the younger crowd will all see it for guys like Shia. I'm not expecting Dead Man's Chest or Phantom Menace numbers, but I do think it will make about $800 Worldwide. About $350 domestic, and around $90 opening weekend. That would require really good legs.

And then a new generation of Indy fans will be born

kongisking said:

Indy 4 will kick every other movie of 2008's ass to the curb. Remember Phantom Menace? That movie was the most hyped and awaited sequel in history, and It became hugely sucessful. The Dark Knight and Iron Man will probably do fine, but Indy 4 is a sure winner. The fans have waited a VERY long time, and we will be swarming over this movie like flies on a sweaty horse in summer. (That was a little over-the-top, sorry)

Click to expand...

Hate to break this to you, but the fans add very, very little to the box-office gross. 90%+ of it lie in the general public, who are mostly either casual fans, kids looking for a good time, or parents searching everywhere for an excuse to get out on a Friday night. The hardcores are a mere cherry sitting next to a watermelon. Sorry.

I highly doubt Indy 4 will outgross The Dark Knight, one of the most anticipated sequels ever after the majority of those who saw Batman Begins concluded that it was the best Batman film ever made, by a country mile. Begins made $205 mil domestic, which is only $4 mil less than the top grossing Indy flick, Raiders. And the film had a poor marketing campaign, for God's sake... now look at The Dark Knight's marketing campaign; what, only the best EVER? The film had gathered tremendous excitement in the general public (aka: not only the fans) over a year before its release, and that excitement hasn't ceased to consistently grow. Add on top that the villain this time around is The Joker, which is the most recognized arch-enemy in the Batman saga? And you have yourself a movie that will most definitely outperform Indiana Jones 4.

In the end, Indy 4 will be THE hit of the decade!

Click to expand...

THE hit of the decade? Wow, that means it has to be the top-grossing film of the 21st century. But oh yeah, it'll totally kill Shrek 2's $436,471,036...

My guess is, if it follows what most sequels do, it should be slightly less than whatever the last movie made. Even with inflation factored in. So I'm guessing that it's total gross domestically is going to be around $275,000,000 to $310,000,000. Total guess. It could be as much as $350 million but I wouldn't count on that. And I doubt it will make less than $250.

I'd like to see it surprise everyone and have an overly enthusiastic release with upwards of $400 million. But yeahhh, I doubt that very much.

And as far as the kids these days seeing it goes... I kind of believe that they'll probably go see it even if they're not that into Indy. Because they've seen much of the older films on tv over the years. Tons of my friends went to see Die Hard even though they barely remembered or cared for the older ones much.