Forbidden Eye said:The fact Jumanji, an Indiana Jones-lite film directed by Kasdan’s son, has grossed over $370 million here plus has grossed almost $900 mil worldwide hurts those points. People still want to see a classic adventure tale if done right(also look at the success of the recent Jungle Book), the fact that Indy travels the globe make this series a pretty popular one overseas; take out the US gross, KOTCS made more money than any other film in 2008, even The Dark Knight.
It’s harder to make Indiana Jones an “expanded universe”, sure, but there’s still enough history, interest, and goodwill towards the brand that Indy 5, if done right and gets solid enough reviews, will be plenty profitable at the box office.
I would argue that Jumanji had a nostalgia factor going for it that Indy really doesn't have at this point. If the last film in the Indy series had been LC, you'd have that nostalgia factor. But a subpar last entry is both too recent to still burn and too far away to have the series be relevant (especially to younger people**). Jumanji had the lingering ghost of Robin Williams and the novelty of there being a Jumanji film without him as well, plus the star power of the Rock. It's not a novelty seeing Harrison Ford play one of his golden oldies on screen again anymore (ala Han Solo or Deckard). Jumanji also had an unsullied brand name, whereas KOTCS hurt the Indy brand.
**=The say, 13-18 year old demographic.
Also 2008 was a different time than now. There was like I said, a novelty, to seeing Harrison as an old man replaying one of his most famous leading roles; also the younger audience of 2008 had more of an awareness of Indy than the younger kids now. Ford was an 80s and 90s leading man, so to kids who grew up then, he had nostalgic value. To the kids now he's just the old man who played Han Solo.
As for adventure, people can get their big brand name adventure fix now from the Jurassic World, Star Wars, and Marvel franchises. It's a crowded field compared to 2008 in terms of competition. Remember, Marvel is MULTIPLE franchises in one. They've filled that void that Indy created, and left.
I just think the appeal of an Indy film nowadays is overstated. KOTCS' box office success was built on almost 20 years of hype, rumor, and anticipation as well as really high expectations. You had Gen Xers who grew up with Indy in the 80s excited to see Harrison take the role one last time; there's no hook like that this time. Like I said, seeing Harrison as an old fogie doing his old favorites isn't novel anymore; it was in 2008. It was nostalgic. Now? Meh. His star power couldn't save Blade Runner.
You had younger people interested because of the brand to a degree, and again, because outside of the Mummy movies and to a lesser degree Tomb Raider (both B level franchises) there was no real "adventure" alternatives; there are plety now.
There's also nowhere near the same level of expectation or DESIRE for an Indy 5 that there was for an Indy 4. People actively wanted a fourth Indiana Jones film all throughout the 90s and 2000s, and outside of The Mummy, there was really nothing like Indy on the big screen to point to as an alternative. The Indy films were basically the Marvel films of their era - the fun, good time box office summer smash. The attitude I've seen toward a fifth film in general, outside of this forum, is "meh." KOTCS did a lot to ruin the good will that the previous three had built up, and as Gen Xers have gotten older (I feel) they've become more cynical - they're not going to be fooled again, so to speak.
I can see an Indy film doing at BEST 600-750 mil (total) if we're being generous. Factor in development costs and marketing etc (easily 200 mil between both) and Disney isn't looking at a great return on such an investment.
Again, they need a REALLY good hook to sell this one, and to be honest, given all the factors I've previously mentioned, I don't see it taking off. I don't see any possible hook that could sweep audiences into seats like, say, TFA had. I don't think Indy is just that big of a brand anymore, and as I also mentioned previously, there's a lot of things that could turn off both old school fans, and leave newer fans cold. No Harrison? Harrison only cameoing? You lose a percentage of the audience there. Some new guy? You might gain some new fans who are fans of that actor, but you might at the same time lose some old fans who wanted Harrison. And then it depends on how they characterize Indy. TLJ has turned a lot of old time SW fans off Disney period from what I've seen - if they do a TLJ on Indy's character, expect more backlash and diminished returns.
Also, there's not as much nostalgia for the 1930s-1950s as there was in the 80s, 90s, and 00s. As those eras grow more distant from us, they become less romanticized and nostalgic and more ancient and irrelevant. When Indy started in the 1980s, 1936 was less than 50 years ago. The age of Bogart and Gable was within living memory. Now? The 1970s are as close to us now as 1936 was to 1981.
Also, the rise of social justice movements and such have done a lot to douse any nostalgia for any time period prior to the Civil Rights era. A lot of younger people see anytime prior to the 1970s as just being "racism." In the 1980s, there was a lot of nostalgia for the 1930s - the grandeur of old Hollywood and such - there was a wave of films (like Grease) which cashed in on Americans' nostalgia for times gone by because the early 1980s was a time of recession and malaise here. The 1930s to younger kids is some far away time where men dressed a little spiffier at best, and a time of depression and racism at worst.
You also can't rule out again, the laws of supply and demand. Look at the Solo movie. There was no demand for that film to happen - no one, really, outside of SW diehards, was all that interested in seeing a Han Solo prequel. And now it's expected to underperform. Where is the demand for an Indy 5? Why SHOULD the public want it? What need or space is it filling?
Think about these things from an advertising and marketing perspective. Why should the public at large pay to go see 80 year old Harrison Ford breaking his hip as Indy when they could easily go check out the newest Marvel or Jurassic World flick? In lieu of Harrison, why should audiences care to see some younger guy (even if it's someone with star power like Pratt or Pine) cosplay as Indy?
Indy belongs in a museum.
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