Disney vs. Paramount

Millions

Member
Well, it looks like you're going to stop with all the negativity now, Sabatoeur. You've spent so much time on this thread, writing these absolutely massive posts about why Indy V will never happen, and calling anyone who disagreed with you naive, and now everything you wrote is, with one news story, utterly irrelevant.

Like other posters told you, there is money to be made in Indy. That's the bottom line. End of story. Your complex number breakdowns, where you were going round and round in circles, were all very nicely worded.... but you failed to grasp that one vital fact. So I'll repeat it. There is money to be made in Indiana Jones. I just hope your job doesn't involve either film or finance.
 

Le Saboteur

Active member
Millions said:
Well, it looks like you're going to stop with all the negativity now, Saboteur. You've spent so much time on this thread, writing these absolutely massive posts about why Indy V will never happen, and calling anyone who disagreed with you naive, and now everything you wrote is, with one news story, utterly irrelevant.

I'll encourage you to read through what I wrote a second or a third time, because your reading comprehension sucks worse than Forbidden Eye's and Udvarnoky's. You may think that Disney hammering out a deal with Paramount negates everything I wrote, but you'd be wrong. That five year plan I initially detailed illustrates why Disney isn't doing anything with Indiana Jones now. As mentioned, their capitol allocation and talent pool is dedicated to other far more lucrative projects.

For example, over it's entire thirty year history the Indiana Jones series has grossed $1.9-billion in adjusted income at the box office. In unadjusted income, it's taken in ~$953-million. With just The Avengers & Iron Man 3 Disney netted $1.4-billion. That doesn't include merchandising revenue. With Thor: The Dark World on track to hit $700-million in global box office, they're going to haul in ~$400-million in profit. So, with three movies they've netted the same amount of money Indiana Jones grossed over a thirty year period. You'd be a fool to not keep that going, because they're relatively low-risk high reward projects.

Indiana Jones is neither of those. Any future film made with the principles is going to be expensive because of their fees, the non-location shooting, and the period nature of the pictures. Spielberg has gone on record about not wanting to be away from his family, so do you really think he's going to decamp to a third world country for a lengthy shoot? No, he isn't. They're going to shoot in Hawaii and/or on a soundstage. Both propositions exponentially increase your production budget.

Disney now holds the distribution rights to future Indiana Jones movies. Does that mean a fifth flick with Ford is imminent? No. It does mean that the character is likely to appear in some form somewhere at an unspecified point in history because, quite simply, Disney will want to make some of its money back. Assuming, of course, that any money has actually changed hands and isn't contingent on a movie actually going into production. As Moedred has noted, pre-development & development are dirt cheap. It requires nothing more than installing Frank Marshall into an office with a functioning telephone and an internet connect. He'll collect his fee while spitballing ideas and attending high-level meetings.


Millions said:
Like other posters told you, there is money to be made in Indy. That's the bottom line. End of story. Your complex number breakdowns, where you were going round and round in circles, were all very nicely worded.... but you failed to grasp that one vital fact. So I'll repeat it. There is money to be made in Indiana Jones. I just hope your job doesn't involve either film or finance.

One more time for the cheap seats: What you and those other posters don't understand is profitability. Spider-Man & Indiana Jones made comparable box office. Which one had a better return? Spider-Man. Why? The principles didn't hoover up the profits as part of their fee. You can't continue to use Crystal Skull's box office as a panacea for all criticism when Paramount probably cleared ~$100-million once everything was said and done. This is part of the encumbrances Disney now has to face if contemplating bringing Indy V to a theatre near you especially with John Carter & The Lone Ranger still on the books. Where are you going to commit your capitol?

In the meantime, feel free to keep projecting.
 

Le Saboteur

Active member
Stoo said:
Re. "Disney proper": Rhetorically speaking, does this concept even exist anymore?:confused:

On the surface it seems that The Walt Disney Company now wants to act as one massive holding company, but with the acquisition of Marvel and Lucasfilm it's a.) diversified its holdings so that they're financially advantageous to the Company and b.) allows the Company to reassert control of the 'Disney' brand/image/whatever. More princesses and Pooh Bears, less cannibalistic outlaws. When the kids becomes pre-teens and full fledged hormone cases, there's Marvel and Lucasfilm. They might even have something else on tap by then. Per Jay Rasulo's comments (he's Disney's CFO), "I don't feel there is anything we need," but "you will continue to see us do acquisitions in the future."

So, while the company today is headed and run by suits and the sharp pencil boys, Iger certainly seems to understand where Disney's core appeal lies and has focused his attentions of them. See: the face first plunge into China with the forthcoming Shanghai Disneyland. There's ~300-million people within 3-hours of the park with a disposable income who have yet to learn the intricacies of The Force! If it's anywhere close to generating the popularity of Tokyo Disneyland, it's going to be absolutely massive.

Anyway.

I've given myself bronchitis and should be sleeping. So, instead of valiantly trying to hack up my lungs, I'll work on a different aspect of this later.
 

Udvarnoky

Well-known member
Le Saboteur said:
I'll encourage you to read through what I wrote a second or a third time, because your reading comprehension sucks worse than Forbidden Eye's and Udvarnoky's.

Blimey, and I was coming in to defend you.
 

kongisking

Active member
The difference with Saboteur is that he/she/it (I'm actually not sure:eek: ) isn't saying those things in a vicious, over-the-top, spitefully negative attitude, but by using smart calculation and some really interesting objective points. Thus, why Millions' post sounds like, yes, projecting.

However...yeah, Saboteur, eat your words. Indy's comin' back, you'll see! Just you wait! He'll be side-by-side with Jesus when it happens! ;)
 

seasider

Active member
"Indiana Jones is neither of those. Any future film made with the principles is going to be expensive because of their fees, the non-location shooting, and the period nature of the pictures. Spielberg has gone on record about not wanting to be away from his family, so do you really think he's going to decamp to a third world country for a lengthy shoot? No, he isn't. They're going to shoot in Hawaii and/or on a soundstage. Both propositions exponentially increase your production budget. "

Spielberg has said he prefers to be near his family but that doesn't mean he's opposed to overseas location shooting. With the exception of KOTCS and I suppose Tintin, he's done 2 movies (Munich, War Horse) where he shot in Malta, Hungary, France and the UK. KOTCS is the only Indy movie shot 100% on U.S soil but I don't see it as some new trend in Spielberg's career. He may be done with exotic third world locations but not with all foreign venues. Besides, when the last time Disney approved a big budget movie to be shot in a remote third world country anyway?
 

Pale Horse

Moderator
Staff member
kongisking said:
However...yeah, Saboteur, eat your words. Indy's comin' back, you'll see! Just you wait! He'll be side-by-side with Jesus when it happens!


With Alan Horn stating TODAY that they don't even have a story and at best it'll be a few years out, Le Sab is spot on with the facts.

“We haven’t done anything,” said Alan Horn, chairman of the Walt Disney Studios while speaking at Variety‘s Dealmakers Breakfast at the Four Seasons Hotel in Beverly Hills on Friday. “We don’t have a story. We need a story.”

“Do I have to see it now and do I have to see it on the big screen? If the answer to both of those questions is no, then we have a big problem. My payhcheck has a mouse on it and I take it very seriously.”
 

Moedred

Administrator
Staff member
Pale Horse said:
they don't even have a story
Oh Pale, you used to sound so optimistic!

Didn't Lucas go from insisting Star Wars 7 would never happen, to finding sequel trilogy outlines under the cushions, in less than a month? If he spent a year or years bluffing Paramount it's too soon to pull the same trick again.

You missed the best line: "We are proceeding as the folks who own the company, but he?s George Lucas and I?m sure we?ll be in conversations with him." Lucas has no reason not to hand over every scrap he's got, but as with Star Wars, Indy 5 happens on Disney's timeline.

Elsewhere, here's a good assessment of the Bruckheimer/Indy "trade:" Paramount wants to make $100M hits and let Disney make the $200M tentpoles. (Though I don't know if that's what you call them when they're mostly tentpoles. I can see the tweets now, "Hey Disney, how about some tent with those poles?" "You're all pole and no tent!" etc.) I learned the term four-quadrant movie: appealing to men, women, over and under 25. ("Hey Disney, work on those quads...") Older males are mostly sold, but I keep saying Shia plus arm candy gets you the rest. Stop groaning fellas, it's not all about you.
 

The Reaper

New member
Pale Horse said:
With Alan Horn stating TODAY that they don't even have a story and at best it'll be a few years out, Le Sab is spot on with the facts.

He is a lawyer or politician? Cause he talks like one. And he is not spot on about facts; he twists them to fit in with his own opinion. So what if they say they don't have a story? The movie is gonna happen. Le Sab is dead wrong. And he can't admit it. That's really sad and pathetic.
 

Pale Horse

Moderator
Staff member
Moedred said:
Oh Pale, you used to sound so optimistic!

"it's not the years, it's the mileage" My good friend. I think it's the Millions of Reapers that come out to play with news like this.

I was a much different man a decade ago.

Elsewhere, here's a good assessment of the Bruckheimer/Indy "trade:" Paramount wants to make $100M hits and let Disney make the $200M tentpoles...

That's what I mean about checking the sources. Forbes, Variety...etc. Much better for fact than cineblogs. I've alluded to it before and LeSab too. The only thing this deal does it make a foster child officially adopted. Now the family jewels are all in one place. But that doesn't mean they're ready to start willing them to the offspring just yet. Maturity takes time.

I hope the forum reads into that. We should all be different men than a decade ago. Even Violet.
 

kongisking

Active member
Pale Horse said:
With Alan Horn stating TODAY that they don't even have a story and at best it'll be a few years out, Le Sab is spot on with the facts.

The news certainly angers me, seeing as the news of Disney finally buying the full rights had me very hopeful.

That said, my comment to Saboteur was supposed to be mimicking the nonsensically-insistent folks that are utterly convinced Indy 5 is guaranteed. Hence saying it would happen with the return of Christ, another "return" I'm skeptical of...
 

Grizzlor

Well-known member
Pale Horse said:
With Alan Horn stating TODAY that they don't even have a story and at best it'll be a few years out, Le Sab is spot on with the facts.

Le Saboteur didn't say the film wouldn't be made, he just said that Disney would not do it under the current terms. Those terms have been revised, and they're free to make the film.
 
Le Saboteur said:
I said upfront, but the lunacy is that you have absolutely no idea how modern film financing works. Receiving a percentage of the film's total box office is not a bonus, incentive, or perk. It's a standard contractual tool for studio's to defray their own production costs. It's calculated into every film's projected profitability by the sharp pencil boys, and a movie wont begin to be considered profitable until a certain plateau is reached. If it doesn't begin to pencil out, said film won't be greenlit. It's as simple as that. See Moedred's links to John Carter and The Lone Ranger. No further explanation is needed, because The Beards will receive what they will because of who they are, not because of what they may or may not do.

I'm not as certain of that as you are. The vast majority of movie contracts are actually stipulated to become effective only under particular conditions. For example, with the clause that if a said movie was to gross more than 600 millions, then the actors or the director could receive a percentage of the box office and so on. I think none of the Beards would ever even get 1/4 of what you predicted. 100 millions for each of them is just absolute nonsense. 100 million dollars is close to the total budget of most of the biggest blockbuster productions that's been made in the past decade. Films like The Revenge Of The Sith or The Curse Of The Black Pearl had revolutionary special effects, a great cast with even some superstars actors, yet they cost only a little more than that. The Lord Of The Rings movies cost far less, and they were all more than three hours long with incredible photography.
Yes, it's true that the deal Robert Downey Junior signed to appear in The Avengers (and be blocked for at least other two films after that) gave him a return of almost 50 million dollars. But it was the biggest contract deal ever. And a one of a kind exception as far as I know.

Le Saboteur said:
They're going to shoot in Hawaii and/or on a soundstage. Both propositions exponentially increase your production budget.

Decrease.
Considering the current state of art that's been achieved by digital imagery, shooting in a soundstage instead than on location could theoretically decrease the costs for production. A lot. With the CGI technology at their disposal, Disney could even make Indy go on Jupiter without the physical need to build anything but a basic skeleton of the sets. I mean, come on, it's 2013. Studios can do things like Avatar. Or this.

The latter film I linked had a total cost of less than 30 millions and has possibly the best CGI visuals ever to be seen in human history from now on. It's all been made on a PC, two times because it's 3D, and looks as freaking real as you can get. With less than 30 millions. Nah, I bet that an Indiana Jones movie, filmed in a soundstage, would cost 'em even less than 100 million dollars. Probably they could do it with less than 80 if they really wanted to. And considering that Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull grossed almost a billion in spite of mixed reviews and bad word of mouth, I'd be ready to bet that a fifth movie could score so much better.

You all know it. People who liked Crystal Skull would go see the fifth chapter in a New York minute. And fans who didn't like it, myself included, would go to the theatre anyway, hoping to finally get the real Indiana Jones film they've been waiting for since decades.

Again. If given a good script (Terry Rossio and Ted Elliot anyone?? Andrew Stanton? Or Kasdan, who is also working for Disney as of now), a fifth Indiana Jones film with Steven Spielberg and Harrison ford could be one of the biggest box office hits in entire cinema history. And they damn know it.

Well now, also in the light of recent events, does this mean the movie will be made? Who knows? Maybe. Or maybe not. But after the little rumour that circulated some months ago, I think it is safe to assume that we've never been closer than we are now. Trust me.
 

The Reaper

New member
The Stranger said:
I'
The latter film I linked had a total cost of less than 30 millions and has possibly the best CGI visuals ever to be seen in human history from now on. It's all been made on a PC, two times because it's 3D, and looks as freaking real as you can get. With less than 30 millions. Nah, I bet that an Indiana Jones movie, filmed in a soundstage, would cost 'em even less than 100 million dollars. Probably they could do it with less than 80 if they really wanted to. And considering that Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull grossed almost a billion in spite of mixed reviews and bad word of mouth, I'd be ready to bet that a fifth movie could score so much better.


.


I agree with most of what you said but I am so sick of this misconception (in bolded) that I must call you out. Skull did NOT get mixed reviews. According to Rotten Tomatoes, 78% of critics gave a positive review. That is way beyond the vast majority of those on the site. Even users were not negative, it's sitting at 54% approval right now and an average of 3.5/5. That's more than half. Metacritic rates it at 65 out of 100 and CinemaScore has it at a "B" rating.

This incorrect public perception, that the reviews are mixed, irks the crap outta me. You can't argue with these numbers. The movie got FAVORABLE reviews overall, end of story.
 

Le Saboteur

Active member
Udvarnoky said:
Blimey, and I was coming in to defend you.

The sentiment is deeply appreciated, but unnecessary. I have broad shoulders. They can take the weight.

That said, a significant amount of my participation in this thread initially revolved around your idea that studio executives understood integers; that is to say, the whole pie. Compared to everything going on @ Disney & Marvel, Dr. Jones is... well, small potatoes. The entire premise is going to require significant reworking to even begin to compete.

Pale Horse said:
That's what I mean about checking the sources. Forbes, Variety...etc. Much better for fact than cineblogs. I've alluded to it before and LeSab too.

Facts? They're pesky things. The entire internet would collapse though if it wasn't continuously fed a robust diet of lies, conjecture, innuendo, and rumor. Think of all the traffic derived from fanatics teasing meaning from innocuous and bland statements! What does 'The' mean in the context of 'The Movie?!'

There are several places one could look for confirmation of The Walt Disney Company's current business plan/model/whatever in action, but that would require a gift for analysis that's sorely lacking here at The Raven. A good place to start, however, might be Disney's quarterly investor newsletters where they outline their plans for, well, growth.

The core pillars of Disney's rather successful strategy thus far are:

  • A focus on creative excellence.
  • Technology must be embraced to increase content.
  • Focus on international growth opportunities.

For the visitors to this thread from the children's table, guess which one is going to be a real monkey wrench in the production of any new Indy pictures?

The company's site is also a great place to find out just exactly who's who in the corporate structure. You'll note a very clear lack of one George Lucas on the board. He won't be springing from double secret probation to veto anything.

Anyway, there's more to write. A nice easy lob for the new year should promote cogent discussion. (Even though I don't think that's an actual possibility here.)

I apologize in advance for those who get befuddled at more than ten characters. In order to make it up to you, enjoy a few seconds with Katy Perry.

It's hypnotic.

zQAsvZe.gif
 

Le Saboteur

Active member
Forbidden Eye said:
I don't agree. Disney is really the only movie studio that relies heavily on profits outside of the movies.

Even if this was true (it's not, by the way), it wouldn't matter. You're dealing with Disney* now. If they could set up a gift shop in every theatre, they probably would. See the El Capitan in Los Angeles. In today's business climate, however, movies are routinely used to prop up and create other business opportunities. See the wildly successful Lego Movie for a current example.

* - In Walt's day Disney was looked at as a whole. Which is why, say, the antique store in New Orleans Square was allowed to exist despite not turning a profit. It added to the ambiance and Disney turned a profit elsewhere. In today's Disney culture everything is a business unit and everything must pad the bottom line. Subsequently, that antique store has been halved in size and sells the wildly popular pins. This is also why you find Toy Story merchandise in Adventureland.

With two* hugely popular E-ticket attractions and an impressive stuntshow out in Orlando, the Walt Disney Company has been doing an admirable job in keeping Dr. Jones' name in the public consciousness. Given the nature of the ride and park capacity, however, I doubt another movie would drive park attendance high enough to defray production costs and back end deals.

* - We don't speak of Le Temple du Peril and considering the fact that Orlando is run on the cheap - and Temple of the Forbidden Eye costs a fortune to maintain and operate - means a third ride will never be built in Disneyworld.

I would suggest that Disney could add to their bottom in a creative and fun way by employing their boutique travel agency. Yes, Disney is operating in the boutique travel sector through their Adventures by Disney travel outfitters.




Adventures by Disney has already done an itinerary based on Frozen out in Norway, and since they already operate in several places Indy frequented it wouldn't be difficult to create an itinerary that would appeal to fans. Throw in something similar to what Sony and Naughty Dog put together for the third Uncharted's release and you could have a real winner. History? Action & Adventure? Yeah, I could see several people here eating it up. I would even consider it for a couple of minutes.

Diversifying the marketing appeal of Dr. Jones is important, because of it's limited scope. There's only so many tee shirts one can sell with Dr. Jones' face on them unlike the virtually limitless amount of Marvel & Star Wars ones because there's so much of it.


Forbidden Eye said:
I don't know exactly how well the trilogy sold on Blu-Ray but I don't even have to look it up to tell you it sold well.

It did about ~$120-million in gross revenue. Trust me when I say that you don't want to get into the minutiae of brick and mortar retail and distribution channels. Factor in The Beards & Ford receiving a cut of that number, the amount of returns they had to take back and destroy, and sale prices, and it would be safe to say that Paramount took in between $40-60-million.
 

Raiders90

Well-known member
Basically, what Le Sab is trying to say is we will never see an Indiana Jones film on the big screen again, and it's foolish to hope for one.
 
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