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Old 11-01-2008, 04:21 PM   #1
deckard24
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Indy V's Potential Box Office Haul

So... if Lucas is really sitting with pen in hand coming up with one more adventure for Dr. Jones, how do you guys think it will do at the box office? The final tally for KOTCS was pretty damn good for a franchise coming out of retirement after a near 20 year hibernation, but it didn't exactly crush all the records as was predicted(that was left for The Dark Knight)! Still there's no arguing that $317,023,851 Domestic and $784 million Worldwide is very impressive. So I'm wondering, do you guys think if we have another film by say 2010 or 2011, it will fare better or worse then KOTCS?
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Old 11-01-2008, 04:42 PM   #2
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It would probably be about the same. Much like Star Wars, the series has a very broad appeal and isn't dependent upon any one demographic.
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Old 11-01-2008, 04:52 PM   #3
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I knew Indy 4 would do well, but I was surprised to see it almost reach $800 million once all was said and done. I assumed it'd be in the $400-500 million range worldwide. As said, I was blown away when I read on BoxOfficeMojo that it had made so much months after its release. I guess its just a testament to the staying power of Indy franchise (and character). After a 20 year hiatus between films, with the film's star in his mid-60's, and its a certifiably successful action film (financially anyway)...has that ever happened before? I think it was a surprise to everyone (including Lucas and Spielberg) at just how well it did. I honestly believe this was intended to be the swan-song, the last Indy film. I think the success at the box office is what is prompting Lucas to seriously consider an Indy 5. I know he'd mentioned plans for another even before Crystal Skull's release, but I believe it was the box-office numbers which truly convinced all involved this franchise could still hold water (and a lot of it!), and at least get the ball rolling for a fifth. Its still up in the air if that ball will roll all the way and we'll get a fifth Indy, but the box-office numbers of Crystal Skull surely are the main reason they'd make a fifth (duh).
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Old 11-01-2008, 05:00 PM   #4
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If it's halfway decent and the beards announce it's the end of the saga, it would do as well as KotCS or better. Star Wars 3 and Lord of the Rings 3 showed that people turn up for a final installment. The Harry Potter 7 double dip anticipates this phenomenon, the appeal to completionists.
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Old 11-01-2008, 05:33 PM   #5
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I think it could actually do better. A lot of people were disatisfied with the movie, so a better received Indy 5 would theoretically do better. Also, a lot of the teenage crowd was introduced to Indy for the first time with KOTCS.
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Old 11-01-2008, 10:13 PM   #6
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The movies have all been very successful with a slight drop-off in revenue between each installment. I don't see why a fifth would buck the trend (unless it was exceptionally good or bad).
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Old 11-01-2008, 10:44 PM   #7
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That's a tough question. I'm glad someone posted this, I've been pondering this for a while.

Teens now are aware of it, many loyal viewers would go see it, KotCS haters would still see it.

I'm guessing it'd still be basically the same.
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Old 11-01-2008, 11:13 PM   #8
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It would depend on many factors, especially the previews; enticing people to go and see it or not.
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Old 11-01-2008, 11:19 PM   #9
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i think it'd be less than IV unless the reviews are great, but still bring in a crapload. even with the so-so audience response, Skull still made around 800 million dollars (more with DVD). I imagine V would still make good money.
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Old 11-01-2008, 11:33 PM   #10
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It would do similar business. But slightly less than KOTCS (a lot of people were let down on that whether or not you agree)...

Just like with all sequels.
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Old 11-02-2008, 12:12 AM   #11
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One thing I believe semi-hurt Indy 4's box office was the advertisement. Frankly, I think burying the trailers until Valentine's Day was not a smart idea. I think they should've done what they did with the Phantom Menace and truly promote the hell out of it. It would've had a bigger opening weekend with everyone officially pumped that Indiana Jones is BACK. All there was was the concept that sold the movie, and obviously, the big grosses prove that Indiana Jones is a truly beloved name that can still sell close to the top. But if they wanted to achieve TDK numbers(which is what I predicted in 2007) they should've elaborated the importance of May 22nd, 2008 to the entire world and assure those stupid "But Harrison is too old" people. Still not sure why they didn't go with that plan. Maybe Lucas didn't want fan's expectations to haven been up even higher?

Now, about Indy 5, it should still make $300 million no question, and while they sort of missed their opportunity with the campaign on Indy 4(just a little though), if they wanted bigger #s, a bigger campaign in addition with a weak summer like 2009(where they don't have a movie like TDK) should do it.
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Old 11-02-2008, 12:15 AM   #12
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It could do more if they really do a good movie this time and the word of mouth does its job. I can only hope for that.

But I think there would be a number of disappointed fans (those 'normally fond' of Indy, not as fans as us) who wouldn't be fooled two times, and wouldn't go this time (I know, between those 'normally fond' are people who liked the film and people that not, too).
I would obviously see a fifth movie.
But I'm not nearly as excited about the idea as I was before Indy 4.
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Old 11-02-2008, 12:23 AM   #13
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Yeah, if it's really good and they get to it soon enough, it could do even better than Skull with the right word of mouth. If it's on par with Skull, it'll still do pretty well. Something in the Bourne Ultimatum neighborhood.
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Old 11-02-2008, 12:30 AM   #14
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yeah word of mouth is what hurt Skull domestically. i actually remembering hearing some guys say "i heard the new Indiana Jones isn't too good. prob rent it later or something".
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Old 11-02-2008, 10:26 AM   #15
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Meh. The reviews and audience response have still been good on the whole; the fact they weren't overwhelmingly glowing doesn't change that. I think our perceptions of the response are skewed by how much more extensively and passionately some of the detractors talk about it. That said, it's certainly true the movie hasn't been broadly deemed an absolute "must-see" by the general populace the way it did, say, The Dark Knight.

As far as the box office haul goes, it's pretty clear a fifth movie would probably still bring in many millions, but I think for purposes of determining its profitability it's perhaps more useful to think about its production costs. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, while certainly profitable, did cost an awful lot of money by all informed accounts - a hell of a lot more than the first three. Some of this is of course attributable to pure and simple inflation, but the fourth movie cost so much more than the originals that I think even after adjusting for inflation it's not only still the most expensive, but the most expensive by a considerable margin. I'd bet that if they made more of an effort to curtail costs, they could make a fine new Indy movie for considerably less than what Crystal Skull cost, and thus require far less of a box-office take to break even (or put another way, a movie with the potential to be a lot more profitable).
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Old 11-02-2008, 11:24 AM   #16
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You guys all bring up good points!

I personally think it has the potential to do even bigger numbers then KOTCS, but the storyline, marketing, and cast will be the deciding factor! If it looks too much like National Treasure 3 it will do modest to good numbers, but if they can bring in some serious big names, a great new villain, a slightly more serious tone, and market the hell out of it, it could surpass KOTCS! I agree the marketing was very odd on KOTCS, and the long wait for even a teaser trailer delayed optimum time for building up even more anticipation for Indy's big comeback!

What Indy V has working for it is the new generation of fans, which will be a huge demographic needed for its success. So you better believe LaBeouf will be back, since he was and is the link for a lot of the younger crowd!

What Indy V has working against it, is the fact that KOTCS was a hit, but not an event like The Dark Knight was! People obviously enjoyed it, the numbers don't lie, but it didn't really break any ground or create the fever that TDK did. For Indy V to be even more successful at the B.O. then KOTCS, it is going to need to wow audiences and create an amazing word of mouth. In my opinion if it does anything less it will still pull good numbers, but not nearly in the league of KOTCS or TDK!
  • Fantastic Marketing/Great Storyline/Dynamic Villain/Excellent Word of Mouth
    $325-350 million Domestic $800-900 million Worldwide

  • So-So Marketing/Okay Storyline/Mediocre Villain/So-So Word of Mouth
    $230-260 million Domestic $600-700 million Worldwide
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Old 11-02-2008, 11:52 AM   #17
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TDK is almost it's own beast. The hype of the joker, the marketing and ledger's performance and sadly his death created this massive event. Batman Begins relatively didn't make too much money, only 371 million world wide(205 domestic) but lots of people saw it on DVD and everything just steam rolled.
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Old 11-02-2008, 12:18 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deckard24
What Indy V has working against it, is the fact that KOTCS was a hit, but not an event like The Dark Knight was!

What you're suggesting is that KOTCS needed to be the "next big thing". But no one really expected that to happen. For that matter, no one expected it to happen with TDK, either.

This was "part four" of a 30-year-old series. Even Spielberg said, going in, that he wasn't attempting to surpass modern action films. The goal was to match the old-fashioned vibe of the previous three, while still being able to compete- commercially- at a 2008 level.

Indy 5 would likely be the same way, and be met with the same reception- give or take a bit.
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Old 11-02-2008, 12:46 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James
What you're suggesting is that KOTCS needed to be the "next big thing". But no one really expected that to happen. For that matter, no one expected it to happen with TDK, either.

This was "part four" of a 30-year-old series. Even Spielberg said, going in, that he wasn't attempting to surpass modern action films. The goal was to match the old-fashioned vibe of the previous three, while still being able to compete- commercially- at a 2008 level.

Indy 5 would likely be the same way, and be met with the same reception- give or take a bit.
Well maybe not the "next big thing" but a film with greater word-of-mouth, and a better marketing campaign to create that event feel! It's true it wasn't meant to go in a drastically different direction then the original films, but the feeling of it being a must-see film was never there! Maybe at first in the opening week or two, but for me personally it wasn't like my reaction or what I experienced of others reactions to The Dark Knight! That was up there with The Blair Witch Project and Titanic!

Caats, you're right it was a different kind of beast altogether! The viral campaign + Ledger's death created a buzz that was almost impossible to ignore! In my opinion if Indy V is to top KOTCS, a viral campaign or at least better marketing will be a big step in the right direction!
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Old 11-02-2008, 01:52 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by deckard24
That was up there with The Blair Witch Project and Titanic!

...or Raiders back in 1981.

I see where you're coming from, but that type of thing generally doesn't happen with every sequel. It didn't with Blair Witch 2 or Batman Begins.

I think the low-key marketing owed more to the fact that Indy 4 was such a long awaited project. Audiences didn't really need to be sold on the idea of going to see another Indiana Jones film, and everyone involved knew it.

But while I don't expect Indy to ever be "the" must-see film of the summer again, it's also in a category that most franchises would love to inhabit: The "Of Course I'll See" film.

Much like Star Wars, audiences will probably continue to go see Indy films as long as they are being made. Many fans were absolutely gutted by The Phantom Menace, but it didn't stop them from going to see Attack of the Clones or Revenge of the Sith. None of those were really "the" must-see film either- even TPM was upstaged by The Matrix- but it didn't exactly hurt them at the box office.
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Old 11-03-2008, 04:23 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James
...or Raiders back in 1981.

I see where you're coming from, but that type of thing generally doesn't happen with every sequel. It didn't with Blair Witch 2 or Batman Begins.

I think the low-key marketing owed more to the fact that Indy 4 was such a long awaited project. Audiences didn't really need to be sold on the idea of going to see another Indiana Jones film, and everyone involved knew it.

But while I don't expect Indy to ever be "the" must-see film of the summer again, it's also in a category that most franchises would love to inhabit: The "Of Course I'll See" film.

Much like Star Wars, audiences will probably continue to go see Indy films as long as they are being made. Many fans were absolutely gutted by The Phantom Menace, but it didn't stop them from going to see Attack of the Clones or Revenge of the Sith. None of those were really "the" must-see film either- even TPM was upstaged by The Matrix- but it didn't exactly hurt them at the box office.
Good points!

Though I won't rule out Indy V being a "must-see film" completely! If it looks like an even better picture then KOTCS, has dynamite marketing, and one hell of a McGuffin, there's potential for an even bigger box office then KOTCS's! It's not likely, but possible! Only time will tell.

Last edited by deckard24 : 11-03-2008 at 04:37 PM.
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Old 11-03-2008, 04:35 PM   #22
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i think for a lot of people. Indy IV didn't kill off their interest in Indy V. if there's good buzz from it, people will go see it. and y'know, if it's made, and it's better but it doesn't make as much money. in 10 years, nobody'll care how much money it made if it's a good movie.

Last edited by caats : 11-03-2008 at 04:40 PM.
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Old 11-03-2008, 04:41 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by caats
i think for a lot of people. Indy IV didn't kill off their interest in Indy V. if there's good buzz from it, people will go see it.
That's true, and regardless of KOTCS's mixed reviews, Indy V (if it's made!) will still be a hit! How big of a hit is the question? A modest $250 Million Domestic/$600 Million Worldwide hit, or a $350-400 Million Domestic/$800-900 Million Worldwide Blockbuster?
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Old 11-03-2008, 04:45 PM   #24
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It's guaranteed big week one numbers, if it's good it'll have legs and so as well as KOTCS at least.
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Old 11-03-2008, 07:02 PM   #25
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Harrison Ford ... Indiana Jones
Shia LaBeouf ... Mutt Jones
Natalie Portman ... Mutt's Girl
Clint Eastwood ... American Archeological Rival (Villain)

It'll do good if that happens.
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