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Old 11-21-2014, 06:42 PM   #51
Joe Brody
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kongisking
???

Nevermind, just walk away, kong...


Just read the lyrics.
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Old 11-21-2014, 08:23 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Brody
Just read the lyrics.

Yup. And they form a song that's about teaching Anna that its better to love one who is imperfect because its more realistic than the seemingly-perfect Prince she's engaged to, and those imperfections make their good qualities all the more special.

I'm sorry that you somehow read a misandrist message into a song about tolerance and love for non-paragons. Which is....everyone.

(I'm also sorry my opinion will be casually dismissed because everyone will just think I'm an nonobjective. naive party. Damn whatever actual sense is in my words)
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Old 11-21-2014, 09:08 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kongisking
Yup. And they form a song that's about teaching Anna that its better to love one who is imperfect because its more realistic than the seemingly-perfect Prince she's engaged to, and those imperfections make their good qualities all the more special.

And you seriously think that's how a kid interprets that song?

You cut me up. Teaching? You want to learn something about teaching to kids watch Fred Rogers, and trust me, he would have thrown up all Frozen and all of its narcissistic b*ll-sh*t.

Her flaw? She's what? Engaged. His? Too many to count.
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Old 11-30-2014, 07:53 PM   #54
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Looking like the domestic run will land somewhere between $200M and $210M. Not bad but not the greatest ROI.
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Old 11-30-2014, 11:57 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Brody
And you seriously think that's how a kid interprets that song?

You cut me up. Teaching? You want to learn something about teaching to kids watch Fred Rogers, and trust me, he would have thrown up all Frozen and all of its narcissistic b*ll-sh*t.

Her flaw? She's what? Engaged. His? Too many to count.

I honestly feel like you give kids far too little credit. But of course, I do not know your son or the family dynamics you have going, so I could be sounding like a jackass here. But believe me, the song is much more innocent than you read it as.

And for the record...Anna's flaws are impetuousness, naivete, temper, overly trusting, reckless and the occasional insensitivity. So its not a case of 'oh, the heroine is flawless perfection while the guy's a pathetic example of humanity.' I agree, that would be messed up and damaging.
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Old 12-01-2014, 03:56 AM   #56
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I haven't been back in this thread because I still haven't seen the flick. Other obligations have kept me from the theatre, but there is a thread dedicated to Frozen. Feel free to adjourn your particular brand of grousing and carping to that thread.
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Old 12-01-2014, 03:20 PM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Brody
Looking like the domestic run will land somewhere between $200M and $210M. Not bad but not the greatest ROI.

Perhaps, but given that you were predicting a possible flop three months ago, that's not bad at all. Not every film can be a Lion King/Frozen sized juggernaut. You need modest-sized hits in addition to the smashes in order to create a brand like Disney(same to how the occasional flop is inevitable).

Either way, the masculine side of Disney Animation can breathe a sigh of relief.
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Old 12-01-2014, 09:37 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forbidden Eye
Perhaps, but given that you were predicting a possible flop three months ago[.]

I love chatting on the internet. In this thread, I observed that BHG will not do bofo box office due to stiff competition (post #23 in this thread) and would likely come in on the lower end of a predicted range (#42). How those observations got turned into me predicting a flop is beyond me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forbidden Eye
[T]hat's not bad at all. Not every film can be a Lion King/Frozen sized juggernaut. You need modest-sized hits in addition to the smashes in order to create a brand like Disney(same to how the occasional flop is inevitable).

Whatever you say.

BH6 Production and Marketing Budgets: $165M + $100M+ = $265M

BH6 Box Office = $210M Domestic + (what?) $300M International (of which Disney only gets half) = $360M

That's not the type of results that gives any c-suite executive comfort. Guardians of the Galaxy was made for less, marketed for less and released in the dogs days of summer and still kicked ass and helped move the needle of Disney stock. Do some searches, and you will even find early 2014 press out there predicting Guardians was going to be a flop.

Compare to the BH6 tailwinds: Marvel Property + Frozen & Wreck-It Halo + Huge marketing dollars + stunning animation + humor + prime release date, + Star Wars trailer buzz, and the end result is $210M domestic? That's not good. Something is lacking. Someone in Disney is not getting the job done. I submit the fundamental miss is the story.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forbidden Eye
Either way, the masculine side of Disney Animation can breathe a sigh of relief.

The only sigh I hear is over another could've been for Disney animation. For BH6 to end (as I understand it) with an introduction of the BHG team as if the sequel is a forgone conclusion is arrogant and further evidence of the fundamental problem of not getting it.
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Old 12-02-2014, 07:18 AM   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Brody
I submit the fundamental miss is the story.

You're right.

99 times out of 100 it always is. I'd break it down....but I'm on a mobile.
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Old 12-20-2014, 07:33 PM   #60
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This was a delightful experience. I definitely will be rewatching this many times in the future. Another winner from Disney.

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Old 01-25-2015, 10:45 PM   #61
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I'm not crisp on my numbers but by the third week of its release, American Sniper will outdraw BH6. I think it is already more profitable in its week #2.

My point?

BH6 is what you get when a movie is made by marketers capable of only making watered down PC safe choices.

Compare that with Sniper, which was made on a meagre budget, had a jostled development (Spielberg was set to direct but couldn't make it work) and given a weak release date (it wasn't even the only war film in theaters) and you get a sense of what real filmmaking is about.

[My thoughts on Sniper are irrelevant -- but I'll say that I don't think I'll be seeing it in a theatre.]
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Old 07-17-2017, 03:27 AM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Brody
...will not do bofo box office due to stiff competition (post #23 in this thread) and would likely come in on the lower end of a predicted range (#42).

I was randomly looking up box office results the other day and it looks like you were wrong; it came out on the high end of my predictions and subsequently exceeded that. Final box office tally was ~$657-million and change.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Brody
BH6 Production and Marketing Budgets: $165M + $100M+ = $265M

BH6 Box Office = $210M Domestic + (what?) $300M International (of which Disney only gets half) = $360M

That marketing estimate was - and is - too high. $70-80-million seems fair; otherwise, your domestic estimate was pretty close (~$220-million), but your international estimate was substantially off (~$435-million). Japanese enthusiasm really put it over the top. Plus another ~$100-million in home video sales.

Back of napkin math puts you at ~$757-million bucks in total revenue. Just chopping the box office revenue in half (using your numbers) gives you nearly $64-million in profit. Factor in profit from home video puts the flick over a hundred million in profit. That's not a bad return on investment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Brody
The only sigh I hear is over another could've been for Disney animation. For BH6 to end (as I understand it) with an introduction of the BHG team as if the sequel is a forgone conclusion is arrogant and further evidence of the fundamental problem of not getting it.

Have we reached the point where anything less than a billion bucks in revenue is considered a failure?

For my money, the story skewed too young. Too family friendly. Had they aimed more for the... 13-year old boy audience then, domestically at least, I think you would have seen more traction. What's his face wearing a suit and not actually turning into a Godzilla-like creature was the worst change they could have made.

Baymax is still rad.

Has anybody picked up the art book for this yet? The concept art is fantastic, and I still want to see more of San Fransokyo. Luckily about half the book is comprised of environmental designs.




Ride the Divine Wind!

And finally: Big Hero 6 is returning to the small screen! Stan Lee let it slip a long while back -- there still might be a movie -- that they were working on a new one, but I didn't think they'd be doing a cartoon series. Of course, it keeps Hiro & Co. in the public consciousness.

Opening credits were released during D23!

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Old 11-05-2017, 10:15 PM   #63
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Missed this over the summer. I was poking around this section looking for a Thor Ragnarok thread to rave about what Cate Blanchett can do with a proper villain role and found this. I can live with being a little wrong on my box office prediction -- but I submit I was correct where it matters most: assessing the overall future and value of this property.

Given all the advance hype on BH6 how can you spin anything less than a sequel as a success? A kids cartoon show? I've got a 12 year boy that doesn't watch the Disney Channel so I don't know if a TV show is better or worse than a direct-to-video sequel. You don't spend $165M on an ANIMATED film 3-4 years ago for just a one-and-done and a Disney cartoon show. So I disagree with you on ROI. It's not just about making 10 or 20M -- its about creating valuable IP and how you lock up years of your top creative talent.

I stand by my observations on this property. It's completely irrelevant. It was fun scanning back through this thread. I own BH6 on iTunes and my son never watches it -- though I do catch him re-watching Hunger Games (and he went to see Thor twice this weekend).

Where's the BH6 merchandising bonanza? (and be careful on this one, I used to do legal work for a major American toy company not named Mattel).

And your thoughts on BH6's re-imagining San Fran predictions are interesting too. I will remember 2017 for quality issues out of Japan, most recently Kobe Steel which has been the biggest problem for me of late. As I said earlier, Japan is a fast atrophying culture. Short of Japan getting nuked by North Korea or a wave washing over the islands, Japanese culture will never, ever, have a major impact on San Francisco.

And as for your financial analysis, your numbers are only as good as they are because I think you low ball the marketing expenses. I don't agree with your 60-80M numbers. I looked at some numbers from Variety on BH6 TV spend + the content you posted on this thread + anecdotal references to marketing spend for this film in trade articles + the BH6 shirts I saw ushers wearing in theaters in the build up to BH6's release and there is no way marketing was limited to 60-80M. I know studios play a lot of games with marketing expenses, so I'll never believe anything put out by Disney, and I will not believe 60-80M.

Bottom line, BH6 was meant to be a franchise and it wasn't. Bottom line BH6 was meant to score big with young boys and it didn't.
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Old 11-07-2017, 01:16 PM   #64
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Just read this. Looking at what Disney is putting out for feature animation and Pixar seems to be heading for a very low point, I mean as bad as pre Eisner Disney movies. I am sure as long as Marvel and Lucas Films continue to pack 'em in all will be well with the house of the mouse. Now ESPN is a different story.

Is Disney/Pixar just putting out content to pack kids of every color/creed/nationality have toys to purchase?
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