I know that all of you are, or at least most of you, to some extent. I mean your here at this forum right? But I was thinking about it and wondered if the rest of the world is really that excited?
I talked to a girl I met recently about Indiana Jones. She said she loved the old movies and I assumed that meant she was excited about Indy IV. Later on we talked again and she said, "Well I really like the OLD ones... I'm not so pumped for old Indy."
So then I thought about it some more. My best friends have all seen the old trilogy but none of them see it the way I do... they don't see it as remarkable. Like, I see it as the adventure equivalent to the Star Wars movies. And we all know how popular Star Wars is around the world, in the media, and online.
Then I started thinking how few Indiana Jones video games have really been made compared to, say, Star Wars over the years. Yes, you could compare it to Rocky, Rambo or Die Hard games and say "Well they didn't make any of those games and people still wanted to see those sequels!" ... but this is Lucasfilm and LucasArts. They've always been into making countless games based on those older franchises. I do realize the prequel trilogy probably doubled the amount of Star Wars games that came out. However, the last Indy game was waaay back in 2003 right? We're only just now getting some new ones. The lack of activity there doesn't help.
Then you factor in that a lot of the kids today, not teenagers... kids, may have not even SEEN the old trilogy. I'm continually surprised by how many people MY age (22) haven't seen them or at least seen them all.
... then you look at this forum. Despite the fact that Indy IV has now been OFFICIALLY announced and is IN PRODUCTION, there doesn't seem to be that many new people visiting and posting. I mean, I will admit I'm relatively new still and that I came around because of Indy IV so I probably don't know the vast majority of the history here. But I used to lurk for a long time before I started posting and it seems there is a set group of people who continually post while a lot just lurk. I was expecting a bigger "surge" of new fans coming out of the woodwork to talk about the new film now that it's official. And TheRaider.net is, at least from my Indy internet site searching experience, one of the best and top Indiana Jones sites in all of the world wide web. So it would seem if they came anywhere they'd come here.
... and I'm still surprised to see lots of older Indy sites still dead after this news finally being official. Like IndyFan.com hasn't updated ANYTHING on the official announcement after YEARS of being around. There are countless others I thought might start back up.
So after all that.
I wondered.
Is the world really waiting for Indiana Jones to go on another adventure? Or is it just a small group of people, including us and perhaps the filmmakers themselves. And when I say "us," I mean the die-hard Indy fans, not just the people here on the board.
Do you think it will really be a big box office draw, or only a modest success? And when I say big, I mean on the level of something like Transformers or Pirates of the Carribean.
And if you read all of my incredibly long post, give yourself a gold star. If you only read half of it, you get a silver one and if you skimmed through it well... you get no star at all. Life's tough sometimes.
I mean, not even all of us are anxiously awaiting the film; some of us are awaiting it, but with marked anxiety.
I'm not terribly surprised that's it's getting some ink online, and I'm sure it will do respectably at the box office, and perhaps even critically, for what it is, but I don't expect a lot of genuine excitement ahead of time from the general public.
Is the world really waiting for Indiana Jones to go on another adventure? Or is it just a small group of people, including us and perhaps the filmmakers themselves. And when I say "us," I mean the die-hard Indy fans, not just the people here on the board.
Good topic! I really believe it is just us right now, but I also don't think that's too unusual at this point in the movie's development. The general public's awarenes of and excitement for movies that are coming soon is usually somewhat fuzzy until the trailers and the magazine covers and whatnot start coming.
Add to that the fact that a) it's been nearly 20 years since Last Crusade, and b) there aren't any real burning questions that were left unanswered by the original three, and I can see why there's a sort of dim, sluggish reaction to the news that a new movie is filming.
Contrast that Star Wars, which had always cultivated the idea that Lucas had a grand plan for more movies, and I can see why the excitement level is different. As a kid I always wanted to know what Lucas had planned for the other movies -- what was the rest of the story, what was Anakin like as a young fighter pilot, etc -- and so the moment the prequels were announced it struck me on a different level. Here I was, finally on the verge of seeing all those childhood questions answered! (In hindsight I wish Lucas had never gone back to tell the prequels, given what they became, but that's neither here nor there.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by No Ticket
Do you think it will really be a big box office draw, or only a modest success? And when I say big, I mean on the level of something like Transformers or Pirates of the Carribean.
It'll have a huge opening weekend. HUGE. By the time spring rolls around the Lucas marketing machine will be in full force. There'll be magazines, toys, movie trailers, etc. And there'll be both the curiosity factor and the nostalgia factor playing in its favor as well (moreso than the new Die Hard and Rocky movies, which I think never really resonated quite the same way with the "fans" -- that is, I think people enjoyed those movies, but not to the same extent as Indy fans enjoy the Indy movies).
Whether Indy 4 will do anything beyond opening weekend is, I think, up to Indy 4 itself. If the movie is good, and the word of mouth is good, and the reviews are good -- it'll be a true blockbuster. If it's not very good, I think the audience for it will disappear rather quickly.
Great topic No Ticket, and I've been wondering about this myself for a while as well!
What I was surprised to find is a large number of the Raven's patrons are 20 years old and under, which shocked me considering I expected the age demographic to be higher since these are classsic films of the 80's. Now, I don't know if this reflects the general public but I tend to think it doesn't unfortunately. If those who didn't grow up with the original movies like myself and a lot of others around here are not in the know or even care to be regarding IJ4, then that does not bode well for the film's success. To be a massive hit along the lines of POTC or Transformers, then the younger crowds need to be brought in. I'm sure the fact that Shia LaBeouf is in it indicates that Spielberg and Lucas realize this. It's no mystery that Spielberg has gone out of his way to invest in him over the year with Disturbia and Transformers, and since then the guy is everywhere and has blown up big time. This I'm sure was part of the plan as he'll be a huge draw for teens, unlike I daresay a 65 year old Harrison Ford!
As Chapter 11 said, when the marketing campaign kicks into high gear with the trailer release and the barrage of merchandise, we'll be able to get a better feel for how the public will repsond to the comeback of one of the biggest 80's action heros. I'm trying to remain optimistic for the film's success, but I'm a little iffy. Nostalgia will play a role, but the youth market is where the big draw will come from. Repeat viewings of POTC, Transformers, Harry Potter, Spiderman, etc. by kids during the summer is the main reason these films pulled in the huge figures!
From what I can tell, the short answer is "no." I think Indy IV will open to much fanfare, but the box office numbers might not be what they would have been 15 years ago. My personal prediction: a moderate opening weekend at the box office, but not a HUGE opening by any stretch.
Just because a few Indy fan sites continue to be dead (even while Indy 4 is being made) doesn't mean the anticipation for the new movie is lower than you'd think it would be. For every person who doesn't care about Indy 4 or thinks it will be bad you can find ten people who are excited about it.
Just because a few Indy fan sites continue to be dead (even while Indy 4 is being made) doesn't mean the anticipation for the new movie is lower than you'd think it would be. For every person who doesn't care about Indy 4 or thinks it will be bad you can find ten people who are excited about it.
Doc, I like you as a general rule, but I really can't suppress my desire to ask you to actually find these people and prove it.
Doc, I like you as a general rule, but I really can't suppress my desire to ask you to actually find these people and prove it.
Prove it? I can just as easily ask you to find these people who aren't looking forward to this movie. I'm just speaking about people I know. I've talked to people who aren't looking forward to it, "Isn't Harrison Ford too old?" and people who are looking forward to it, "I don't care if Harrison Ford is older it's still going to kick ass".
Prove it? I can just as easily ask you to find these people who aren't looking forward to this movie. I'm just speaking about people I know. I've talked to people who aren't looking forward to it, "Isn't Harrison Ford too old?" and people who are looking forward to it, "I don't care if Harrison Ford is older it's still going to kick ass".
You could ask, but you wouldn't be asking for actual numbers of people the way I was.
The thing is that summer blockbusters are a dime a dozen these days, and I think the most inevitable reaction that there's going to be, much as there was to Rocky Balboa (which was, in my opinion, a good film), is one fairly mystified by why they would want to make a new one. Yes, it's true that people are hoping for something different (read: good) from Harrison Ford, but Lucas's reputation hasn't exactly been burnished over the past decade or so, and for Spielberg it's a bit down-market.
I'm sure there will be some excitement, and that said excitement will build over time, but 10 excited people for every 1 who isn't? If you bet on that, you'd make a bundle, because the odds sure as hell are against it.
What makes you think few people care about Indy 4? I know there's a lot of negativity out there on the Internets and in the real world but come on. From what I've seen there's just as much hype, excitement, and anticipation for Indiana Jones as there is for The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Bond 22, etc.
What makes you think few people care about Indy 4? I know there's a lot of negativity out there on the Internets and in the real world but come on. From what I've seen there's just as much hype, excitement, and anticipation for Indiana Jones as there is for The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Bond 22, etc.
You want actual numbers? Seriously?
Of course I don't want actual numbers; my whole point is that I don't think that those numbers, were a study or whatever performed, would be found to be accurate.
I don't know, I admit, the action film isn't a realm I know well, but I haven't even heard of Iron Man, much less heard any hype, excitement, or anticipation for it. A film that's coming out in 9 months? People have better things to care about. And 10/11ths of the population, whether you take that to mean everybody or even just those who are aware Indy IV is being produced (and we both know those are far different sets), is not going to be excited about it. If you claim otherwise, that's your perogative, but seriously? 10 out of every 11, even just of those aware of the film's existence, are eagerly awaiting it? I doubt that.
Dude, you shouldn't take that "there's 10 people for every person" thing I said so seriously. It wasn't a scientifically thought out proportion or anything. I was just trying to make the point that there is anticipation for Indy 4 and its not just a handful of Indy fans on a message board.
Dude, you shouldn't take that "there's 10 people for every person" thing I said so seriously. It wasn't a scientifically thought out proportion or anything. I was just trying to make the point that there is anticipation for Indy 4 and its not just a handful of Indy fans on a message board.
Yeah, but I don't think even a simple majority is that excited. So the essence of the statement is still one I disagree with.
Yeah, but I don't think even a simple majority is that excited. So the essence of the statement is still one I disagree with.
In any event, a better measure will be if people are excited come April or May. I expect they will be. Me, I'll hardly be able to contain my enthusiasm!
To be honest from the few movie news and fan sites I've visited like AintitCoolNews.com and C.H.U.D.com, the overall feeling towards IJ4 is extremely pessimistic. The majority of AintitCoolNews.com's staff seem mixed and as for the talkbackers, well there's an overwhelming opinon of "why bother?" and "who cares?". Now I know these sites don't speak for the general public, but they do give a window into the mindset of the hardcore fanboy population out there who count for a lot of ticket sales and whose word of mouth can alter a films success. If AintitCoolNews slams a pic, its future is on shaky ground. I'm not expecting this to happen with IJ4, but aside from dedicated fan sites like The Raven where anticipation is growing every day, not everybody out there cares about Indiana Jones 4 like we all do!
I don't really know how it'll turn out. I think that the other movies that have come out (Rocky and Die Hard) that are fourths are not really good examples of how this particular film will be. Rocky isn't really an adventure or action flick even, I have always thought of them more as dramas with some action. Die Hard might be a better way to gage this film's success because it is more action-oriented. It was very well received, so that bodes well for Indy IV. Right now, I don't think there is a lot of hype about the film, but also you have to remember that this isn't Star Wars. Those fans are more numerous than Indy fans and certainly more die hard (I mean, some of them actually like that first one) than us. A month or two before the film, there will definitely be more hype, but it is definitely too early to tell.
Die Hard might be a better way to gage this film's success because it is more action-oriented. It was very well received, so that bodes well for Indy IV.
Perhaps so, but it was a moderate success. It made the most money (due to inflation) but was the least attended of the Die Hard films.
In my mind, the new Die Hard was good but missed the true character of the original films. He was too much like The Terminator in how he was just badass, taking down fighter jets and all this crazy stuff. In the original Die Hard, John McClane could barely walk because glass was stuck in his feet. Your telling me that just cause he is older now he can jump on an F-35 and bring it down single-handedly? That's more like The Matrix movies than Die Hard.
... but anyway ...
I think the general public doesn't much care for the Indiana Jones franchise the way we do. I think they "liked" the older movies when they came out but I think they didn't fall in love with them as much as some of us did. I think a lot of the teens in the 80s are now parents and may or may not actually go see the movie. They MIGHT bring their kids, or they may just wait for the DVD. My 30 year old brother doesn't make it out to theaters very often, but he might for Indy IV. Teenagers are who go to the theaters as mentioned, most of the time. So they are the ones who will be the biggest part of the box office.
I think Indy IV's opening weekend will be something "on-par" with the originals but still not as much. I think it will make it's money back but not break any records. I imagine it will be the least attended of any of the Indiana Jones films. I think the Dark Knight will blow it out of the water in comparison - the box office I mean. And I think as quickly as it came it will be forgotten as it makes it's way to DVD.
If it's a really good film. I mean as GOOD as the older ones and it gets an 85-100% rating on something like Rotten Tomatoes... I think it's total box office will be around $250 million.
If it gets a ho-hum 50-80% rating, I estimate the total box office being around $150 million to 200 million.
... and if the general critic reaction is poor, I'd estimate it only make about $150 million-180 before it tops out.
... but that's just my general guess. I don't see it going to 300 million and I don't think anyone else does either.
If it makes any less than that I will be shocked and disappointed. Come on, it's Indiana freak'n Jones!
Prove it? I can just as easily ask you to find these people who aren't looking forward to this movie. I'm just speaking about people I know. I've talked to people who aren't looking forward to it, "Isn't Harrison Ford too old?" and people who are looking forward to it, "I don't care if Harrison Ford is older it's still going to kick ass".
I get the Isnt Harrison Ford to old ?"question all the time.I hate it! cant they just get past that and think,"wow indiana jones i have great memories of that I cant wait!"but what can you can do I dont know anyone thats as excited as i am,but not everyone is a die hard fan like NO TICKET stated.Most people dont even know that Indy 4 is even being made,so we'll just have to wait til about ..what is it ?NOVEMBER?when the teaser comes out,then I know more people will getting ready for the BEST MOVIE EXPERIENCE EVER!
I think it was Deckard 24 that said most of the raveners are pretty young ,its true. http://raven.theraider.net/showthread.php?t=10940
im sure glad most teenagers like to go to the movie thaetre,no worries Indys gonna be a box-office hit,i can already feel it.
Movie goers are a strange breed. I agree that Die Hard 4 was the worst of the bunch, although still a fun movie, but it had lackluster promotion. I think a big part of the criticism for IJ4 is due to Lucas' handling of the Star Wars prequels, and the perception that Spielberg doesn't make good movies anymore. But Steven has said this movie is not for ego, sales (not entirely), awards, etc. It is for the fans. The fans will love it, and nobody will give a hoot what the critics say.
Yeah, I think this is a good point. The anticipation and buzz is NOWHERE close to what there was before Episode I.
IF Indy 4 is actually really good, this could be a very good thing. If most people go into it with the mind set of Ford's too old etc. then it could really blow some people away. In fact, Lucasfilm should deliberately leak some negative early reviews to lower expectations.
To be honest from the few movie news and fan sites I've visited like AintitCoolNews.com and C.H.U.D.com, the overall feeling towards IJ4 is extremely pessimistic. The majority of AintitCoolNews.com's staff seem mixed and as for the talkbackers, well there's an overwhelming opinon of "why bother?" and "who cares?". Now I know these sites don't speak for the general public, but they do give a window into the mindset of the hardcore fanboy population out there who count for a lot of ticket sales and whose word of mouth can alter a films success.
I don't think AICN really speaks for the "overall feeling" of anyone, to be honest. The people who contribute to or comment on that site are generally very negative or way, way, WAY too positive. It's all junk. That's my observation, anyway. I also think there's this inflated (and inaccurate) sense of just how relevant and influential sites like AICN and CHUD really are.
Take the example of Serenity, which was literally everywhere in "geek" circles in the summer of 2005. Based on the online buzz one might have thought Serenity would open with Star Wars like numbers. Instead, sadly, it fizzled at the box office and did about $40 million total.
My point is, AICN and CHUD aren't really good indicators of what the general public is really thinking. They aren't really even indicators of what the "fans" are thinking. They're generally just home to really negative people and blindly positive people. The rest of the world senses those two extemes and ends up avoiding the sites altogether.
THE WORLD
I think that the question wether or not some people are waiting for Indiana Jones 4 doesn't really have anything to do with how well the film will do at the box office.
I BELIEVE (as opposed to KNOW FOR SURE) that the people largely responsible for a box office, that brings about a full page ad of self-loving in Variety and the decision to give all Paramount employees a day off, are somewhat between 15 and 23 years old. At least that's what I've read...on the internets. So there may even be a 1% chance that it is actually true.
Whatever, I think that most of these people aren't really reflecting much on what film they are going to see. Going to their local theater may rather be a purely social thing.
I once heard someone explaining the success of THE SIMPSONS (tv series) by stating that it would attract both intelligent and stupid people. I think that, just as a theory, the same could be said for the Indiana Jones films.
They are thrilling roller coaster rides, but don't insult your intellect. They are action pieces with relatively believable and interesting characters and a worthwhile story-back up.
In the end, though, I guess "the world's" reaction really depends on how the film will be marketed.
They may not be waiting for it right now. But if the promotion really works they will feel as if they had waited for this for some time...
Also, in that audience segment, that I claimed would be the most important one, peer pressure seems to be everything.
Once the film is THE topic in offices, schoolyards, classrooms and dorms, people will feel the need to see it...or going to be turned off by the hype (I don't think that those humans usually decide over a hit, though ).
The key, not only being the transcendence of the IQ barriers but also the age gaps.
THE GEEKS I
It's not too surprising that at places where the term "...raped my childhood" has become a standard saying people are rather hesitating expecting another release that reaches back to the films that were probably among most of the guys' and girls' key inspiring movies, when the were young. (Does that sentence make any sense?)
Then again, besides all the positive and negative hyperbole that is existent on communication platforms such a the AICN TBs, there are many many many reasons to be rather pessimistic about Indy IV.
As a side note/rant: I really can't stand it if people blame web writers for not going completely crazy about Indy IV. There are even cases where writers have been accused of "boycotting" this film, which is, in my rather humble opinion, utter fanboy bull****.
THE GEEKS II THE RAVEN
I think that a whole bunch of people have joined us since the film has been officially announced. Maybe someone has access to some numbers that could actually confirm that feeling of mine.
Why the disappointed undertones, though? Are some of you sad there isn't a fanboy cult as strong (and disturbing) as the one for STAR WARS?
As someone who would never dress up in Indy gear (no offense to those who do!) I'm not really sorry about that at all.
ME
I've been waiting, yeah. But when I regularly do the "what if I didn't read any film related websites?" mind switch I notice that I cannot remember reading anything about Indy IV in any of the magazines or mass media things surrounding me.
As for the "is the world waitin" question, I'm not sure if I really care about it. I may get some fuzzy feelings, if a thing I LOVE is getting some public LOVE, or at least if I see it mentioned by those parts of the mass communication complex I care about. And I may get pretty upset if my "favorite" journalists don't care about it or treat it like ****.
I don't know how I'll feel about the box office, though. I may get a disappointing vibe from low numbers, but rationally I don't want to care about where all the folks who went to see NORBIT and WILD HOGS and enjoyed it ended up on opening weekend...
AintitCoolNews.com and C.H.U.D.com might be home to some serious negative and yes blindly positive people, but they are still one of the few sites out there (which is not strictly devoted to Indiana Jones) where IJ4 is being discussed. As I said they don't represent the general public but the hardcore fanboy pop. which is still pretty large. I believe it was either Time or Newsweek that did a whole article on the fanboy population and spent quite a bit of time discussing both these sites and their ability to alter a film's success. The fact that so many people show up at Comic Con and conventions worldwide all the time shows that the fanboy pop. is alive and well. The video clip Spielberg did for Comic Con alone shows how serious they know these conventions and its faithful patrons are!
Personally, I hope it's not a huge box-office smash. I'd rather sit and enjoy the movie with a moderate crowd of lifelong Indy fans than with an overcrowded mob of idiot teens and morons with crying babies. Just my opinion.
I dont know anyone thats as excited as i am,but not everyone is a die hard fan like NO TICKET stated.Most people dont even know that Indy 4 is even being made,so we'll just have to wait til about ..what is it ?NOVEMBER?when the teaser comes out,then I know more people will getting ready for the BEST MOVIE EXPERIENCE EVER!
). 
