As Rocket notes, I think it largely depends on what "movies" are like in 200 years. Will they even exist? Or will people immerse themselves in virtual 3D realities with open ended dream like adventures? Or will they just be busy fighting real life zombie hordes as Montana speculates?
When movies first came out they ran a couple of minutes. Then they ramped up to half an hour, and then to an hour and a half and to two hours. Now we have LOTR and others at 3-4 hours. In 200 years people could watch 10 hour movies. Or the low attention span could reign and they'd be back to 15 minute flicks, at which time they wouldn't want to sit down to Raiders, Fellowship of the Ring, or Gone with the Wind.
Yes, hard to say.
A few things it has going for it: Color. Good sound capture. Good script. Good enough effects. Good score. Good story. Good acting.
And by "good" I mean "good enough to stand the test of time for a long, long time."
While it's fun to watch a silent film or a grainy b/w with bad sound, cheap effects, relatively bad acting, and a pulp script, most people don't watch them as mainstream entertainment. But Raiders doesn't fit that category. It's got a lot going for it.
People still watch Gone with the Wind, Wizard of Oz, Casablanca, Citizen Kane, and numerous others. Dated? Yes. Highly watchable classics? Yes again.
So in the end, I do believe people will still be watching Raiders in 200 years. I think it will fall into the same category as ones I just listed, as if they were all contemporary. "You know, those old classics, like Raiders and Wizard of Oz." Only thing that would separate the old classics from the not-quite-as-old classics would be color, which is funny given Wizard of Oz and Gone with the Wind both came out before Casablanca or Citizen Kane.
That time period marked a major leap forward, in the way that Chuck Berry and others ushered in rock and roll. Go to any high school without uniforms and you'll find dudes wearing Led Zeppelin shirts and listening to The Doors, Zep, Stones, Grateful Dead, etc. -- listening to guys that are now considerably older than their own grandparents.
Once those defining moments happen, the style sticks around for quite a while.
Wonder what the next defining moments in cinema will be. 3D has come and gone for decades, but it's not that defining regardless. HD and IMAX ramped up the rez and gave the masses "home theaters." Full immersion would be major. I just don't want to have an HDMI port implanted at the base of my cranium.
